Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb

This quote a été ajouté par nkjdhf
If rational traders detect a pattern of stocks rising on Mondays, then, immediately such a pattern becomes detectable, it would be ironed out by people buying on Friday in anticipation of such an effect. There is no point searching for patterns that are available to everyone with a brokerage account; once detected, they would be self-canceling.

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bvw 1 semaine, 2 jours avant
I agree, this is muddle heading modeling by Talib. There are patterns, they are like waves and change.

I hate day trading and long for the days of stock certificates: they were real values, owned. Not like today where we investors don't own anything, the Clearing House company owns the many trillions of nominal value stock shares in trade accounts. In any case, time delays in transfers would make the markets less foolish, and better evaluations of "intrinsic" value.

There are different forms of traders, they operate on different timings. There is no instant counter-reaction to the emotions of a string of Mondays, any ironing out takes weeks.
kumagai 1 année, 9 mois avant
Not really. Everyone is looking for different setups. And markets also move fractally across timeframes, so the setups are endless. You just have to know your edge.

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